Has Mr Morgan asked Ms Morgan to be nice to litte Wyn

This riveting conversation happened just before Prime Ministers Questions
from hansard

Julie Morgan (Cardiff, North) (Lab): What recent discussions he has had with the Welsh Assembly Government Ministers on helping small businesses in Cardiff, North constituency. (i.e. has he talked to our porkbusting friend the little jones)

The Secretary of State for Wales (Mr. Paul Murphy): I have regular discussions with Welsh Assembly Government Ministers on a range of topics. ( i.e. no) Numerous initiatives are in place in Wales to support small businesses, including in my hon. Friend’s constituency.

Julie Morgan: I thank my right hon. Friend for that response. (i.e. gotcha gotcha gotcha) Is he aware that Whitchurch in my constituency is one of the two places chosen by BT to pilot its super-fast broadband system? Does he agree that that will be a huge boost to local small businesses, giving increased access in a more effective way?

Mr. Murphy: Yes, I do, and I welcome that news from my hon. Friend. It is one of only two pilots in the whole of the United Kingdom. etc.............................

The Steamer is a big fan of Ms Morgan but she seems to be implying that WAG had something to do with BT decision to trial the broadband service in Cardiff. BT give a slightly different reason. -two sites were chosen because of their mix of customers and net providers in these areas as well as the make-up of the local communications network and geography.

Extra Extra

Just been posted this - also from 22nd

Don Touhig (Islwyn, Labour) Iceland is the 10th most prosperous economy in the world and Wales should follow its example—that was the advice given by nationalist Assembly Member Helen Mary Jones earlier this year. Unfortunately, the nationalists who run my council listened to her and put £15 million into Icelandic banks. Now unsure whether they are going to get the money back, they are having to raid balances for £11 million to deliver Labour's promise on equal pay. What advice has my right hon. Friend got for my constituents in those circumstances?

Paul Murphy (Secretary of State, Wales Office; Torfaen, Labour) My advice is that they should vote Labour.

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Kirsty 4 leader

We have been asked by Lib Dem HQ to highlight the following ..........................

http://www.kirsty4leader.co.uk/englishnominate.htm

For potential gerrymandering fun

http://www.kirsty4leader.co.uk/mediacontact-z.htm

For ridicule

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Put boxing on school curriculum

We at The Steamer couldn’t agree more with Joe Calzaghe that boxing should be brought back into the school curriculum. Boxing, and other contact sports like judo, help young boys understand who they are, their limitations and the consequences of their behaviour.

The well meaning but occasionally foolish Welsh Assembly Government have just spent 20 million quid on giving 5 year olds and understanding of ‘sustainability’ as part of something called the foundation phase. Wouldn’t this money be better spent supporting Wales’ excellent athletic and sporting clubs integrate better with schools?

Who knows this might actually benefit some of the people the Labour Party is meant to be serving?


LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

divide et impera at coleg gwent

Are Labour AMs seriously going to publically fight their comrades in the parliamentary Labour Party over the Affordable Housing Legislative Competence Order? The Steamer seriously hopes not.

The Steamer reminds, respectfully, Labour Assembly members that they should constructively reflect upon the opinions of their comrades in parliament. Members of Parliament have a right and a duty to make the case for LCO to be drafted appropriately and accurately. This is particularly important if Labour AMs continue to be neutered for fear of offending our coalition partners. If MPs fail to Act Plaid will have a freehand to bring forward a series of LCOs that act in their interest and not that of Wales.

As a great man now fallen from grace once said ‘Devolution is not a single defining event but a process.' It is about give and take. Even the most ardent Pliadophobe in the party will accept the general principle of affordable housing and most will recognise that the aims of the LCO are commendable. But it is almost universally accepted that this LCO has been drafted in a way that is at best misleading and at worst mendacious.To wave through the affordable housing LCO in its current form would do a disservice to Wales, to devolution and to the party. It would also set a dangerous president that bad law is OK for Wales. The One Wales coalition should not have a free pass to act with impunity.

Labour MPs need to take a greater role in commenting on, and where necessary criticising WAG policy. To take another example, what is happening across Coleg Gwent would have been completely avoidable if Labour MPs had voiced an opinion on the Assembly wasting tens of million pounds on the foundation phase program which seeks to give 4 year old and understanding of ‘sustainability’ .

This is not a joke. College campuses serving some of the most deprived areas in the UK are being shut so middle class parents in the Vale of Glamorgan and Castell Newydd Emlyn can feel better about themselves.

Stand firm stand firm.

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Mochyn Bach

Can Anglesey eat any more pork. First there was planes, then trains now there are going to be.............................. cruse liners

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Murph Alert

THE IWA (not to be confused with this IWA or NWA) are holding a dinner for St Murphy. To book follow this link

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Blessed are those who are persecuted because of righteousness,

Blessed are the poor in spirit,

for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.

Blessed are those who mourn,

for they will be comforted.

Blessed are the meek,

for they will inherit the earth.

Blessed are those who hunger and thirst for righteousness,

for they will be filled.

Blessed are the merciful,

for they will be shown mercy.

Blessed are the pure in heart,

for they will see God.

Blessed are the peacemakers,

for they will be called sons of God.

Blessed are those who are persecuted because of righteousness,

for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Stand firm Hywel Francis, Albert Owen, Sian James, and Nia Griffith.

As part of the unofficial One Wales agreement Labour AMs have been instructed not to have a go at Plaid. To be fair Plaid have also signed up to the agreement but only for Labour Party at the Assembly. The truce works like this : Jane Hutt is off limits but Gordon Brown is fair game. As most voters in Wales won’t have clue that Jane Hutt is the ‘most progressive education minister in Europe’, this means Plaid have in effect a free shot at our ministers in Westminster.

News has now reached The Steamer that Plaid is actively targeting Labour Members of Parliament to rubber stamp LCOs when they come before the Welsh Affairs Committee. The four names that have been mentioned are Hywel Francis, Albert Owen, Sian James, and Nia Griffith.

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Zark-over

AS expected superstar filly Zarkava has been retired to stud.

The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner bows out unbeaten after a seven-race career. Her owner, the Aga Khan, said: “Zarkava was a supreme athlete.”

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

The steamer would like to commend to listeners the joint Welsh Office / WAG strategy on the crisis crunch. The economy – a focus for Wales. It treats the Welsh people as adults and sets out pretty clearly what the government in Westminster and Cardiff can do. And can’t do.

Kim Jong-Morgan and St Murphy have also been largely successful in keeping the bleating of Plaid Cymru away from the detail. Crucially the document is signed by the two leaders and not the economically illiterate little Wyn.

The Steamer is rarely critical of our great leader St Murphy, however, we cannot fail to think that the people of Wales would have been better served if the saintly one had spent yesterday morning preparing for the National Economic Committee (in which he was representing Wales), rather than sharing a platform with little Wyn’s at the Assembly’s economic summit in the morning.

The meeting was a pointless talking shop that brought together the great and the good to talk. It changed nothing, reassured no one. The sad reality is that gathering of this nature can do little to ameliorate the economic tsunami that is about to crash over Wales.

Late news

Social Justice and Local Government Minister Brian ‘Do the funky’ Gibbons has however made a small and largely unheralded step to ensure that all the people of Wales have access to credit unions. Good work Bri!

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Miss Wagstaff blog on Ms Morgan and the leadership.

This blog written by well known Labour insiders at the Assembly does nothing to help the
Labour cause. It simply promulgates division that can then be used by our enemies.

Its recent comments on Ms Morgan are particularly unhelpful. Ms Morgan is a talented politician wasted in the European parliament. It is only proper that she should consider her future and make plans for her next step. This might be into parliament or it might be to fight for a seat at the next Assembly. She would make an excellent First Minister and is exactly the kind of person we in Wales should be promoting as representative of the labour cause.

A few weeks ago a number of commentators were mentioning that there Ms Morgan might replace the excellent Karen Sinclair if she had to permanently stand down because of ill health. Now a potential vacancy in Pontypridd is being mentioned. This speculation in the first instance is insulting and in the second unhelpful.

Imagine the fun that could be had by the opposition if there was a parachute by-election in Pontypridd. Despite a great fight back by Brown now is not the time to risk finances and effort on a by-election Labour should, but are by no means guaranteed, to win. The economic situation is so unstable that anything could happen politically within a six week period.

Misswagstaff should be more careful that her comments support excellent Labour party politicians rather than sink to an unhelpful paranoia that only helps our enemies. Now is not the time for a fight. Labour has five good potential candidates for leader at the Assembly

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Why don’t activists do this (Part1)

Great campaign idea from the US election battleground (http://yeswecarve.com/index.php)

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

St Murphy’s conference speech.

Why the Man is a saint!

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Why don’t more Labour AMs and MPs do this...... (Part1)

The Alyn and Deeside Labour tag team, Mark ‘The Enforcer’ Tami, and Carl ‘The Governor’ Sargeant have launched a competition to find a design for their 2008 Christmas card. Children in the constituency are being asked to come up with designs, with the winning image being printed on the Labour politician’s official Christmas card.

This is a great move by two of the hardest men in UK politics and highlights one small way other Labour politicians could try to reconnect with the communities they serve.

One has to however have slight concern for Flintshire school children if they don’t come up with the goods. Mr Sargeant said

“The prize-giving ceremony will be held in early December and I have my fingers crossed that the standard of entries will be higher than ever.”

Tami and Sargeant are old school government whips. Politicians in both Cardiff and Westminster accustomed to the veiled threats from North Wales know that to ‘disappoint’ is a dangerous game. Parents, teachers and school children will no doubt be working their socks off to make sure they do not incur the full force the heavyweights.

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Crisis over; little Wyn on case

Taken from the Pliad website

An all-Wales Economic Summit to discuss the present financial crisis and its impact on the Welsh economy has been announced by the Plaid Leader Ieuan Wyn Jones.

The summit will bring together leaders of some of Wales’s top companies, trade unionists, Wales's Business Partnership Council ( an existing forum designed to enable business to discuss key One Wales Government policy developments ) and representatives of the all the key economic sectors in Wales - including construction, retail and financial services.

Even loyal Plaid members will be worried that Little Wyn is in charge. Obviously the Plaid website should have mentioned the presence of St Murphy and Kim Jong-Morgan.

Even loyal Plaid members will be worried that Little Wyn is in charge. The Plaid website should have mentioned the presence of St Murphy and Kim Jong-Morgan ! We will be writing to the FSA as there must be a law against worrying the welsh people.

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Man who condemns labour MPs to lead Wales’ economic fight back

An all-Wales Economic Summit to discuss the present financial crisis and its impact on the Welsh economy has been announced by the Deputy First Minister to the Assembly.....................

First the good news

St Murphy will be in attendance. SERVE AND OBEY.

Then bad news

little Wyn Jones will also be in attendance. One can only imagine what hair-brained ideas Jones Bach will be bringing to the table. It will however be a good opportunity to put some questions to little Jones on how he thinks Labour is handling of the crisis.

For example I am sure St Murphy will ask for clarification on little jones' conference statements that Gordon Brown had been "found wanting" and had be shown to be "incapable of handling a major economic crisis".

I am sure St Murphy will comment upon Little Wyn’s recent assertion that

"Frankly, people have had enough. They want a government in London that not only understands their concerns but is prepared to do something about it,"

And hopefully he will ask Little Wyn what exactly he meant means when he said

"Labour MPs have let us down," and "There'll be no hiding place for Welsh Labour MPs who say one thing in their constituencies and another in their cosy club atmosphere of Westminster."

At a time like this our leaders in Cardiff and Westminster need to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with their comrades in the party and the trade union movement in support of Gordon Brown and the Welsh Labour MPs.

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Wales bails out England and Scotland. Again!

Hard working Welsh tax payers are being asked by Alistair Darling to bail out the mad cap capitalists in the city of London and the city of Edinburgh. In effect every Welsh tax payer is being asked to stump up around £10,000 to bail out banks that have shown little interest in investing in Wales. We the Welsh taxpayer will have no control over these banks and when cuts come they surely will come to the ‘call centres’ that along with Admiral constitute Wales financial services sector.

The Steamer thinks Darling has done a good job but he hasn’t been helped by the SNP and there Lib-demesque-flip-flopping-economics.

Comrades we should be aware that two of the biggest banks with their heads stuffed most deeply in the trough are Scottish. We should also be aware that the SNP virtually control how one of these parasitical banks is communicating with the outside world. Staff members in RBS the press office include Andrew Wilson, a former Scottish National Party MSP; Colin Pyle a friend and ex staff member of Alex Salmond and Andrew Henderson, one of Salmond's drivers during the recent election.

Andrew Davies our excellent Minister for Finance must be fuming at what amounts to the biggest transfer of cash from Welsh public services into the hands of a bunch of Scottish bankers!

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Top 10 most powerful Welsh Labour Politicans

1. Paul Murphy (Torfaen) – The great leader, supreme protector. Serve and Obey

2. Rhodri Morgan (Cardiff West) – A once great leader but now an ageing lion. Rhodri's health is so fragile that balloons have been banned at official WAG functions in case one pops unexpectedly.

3. Kim Howells (Pontypridd) – Chair of the Security and Intelligence Committee. Keep a close watch..........

4. Edwina Hart (Gower) – Runs the Welsh NHS, hard as nails

5. Chris Bryant (Rhondda) – Deputy Leader of the House of Commons and Curry House Plotter Part of the outer, inner circle, a Brownite to his underpants. One of the best communicators in Parliament

6. David Hanson (Delyn) Minister of State at the Ministry of Justice – Consistently the most impressive Welsh minister.

7. Kevin Brennan (Cardiff West) Parliamentary Secretary at the Cabinet Office. Small but perfectly formed.

8. Huw Irranca-Davies (Ogmore) – now looks after English Soil

9. Jane Hutt Vale of Glamorgan Minister for Welsh children

10. Wayne David (Caerphilly) – Great Leaders Number 2

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Kim Howells in charge of Spooks (and I don't mean the TV program)

Kim Howells has been moved from the FCO to Chair of the Intelligence and Security Committee. This is the parliamentary committee that rubber stamps overseas the work of the MI5, GCHQ and MI6.

This is a position of some importance as the chair can virtually hold the prime Minister to ransom on issues of national security. He is the first person to Chair the committee who has not been a cabinet minister and replaces Margaret Becket who replaced our great leader St Murphy.

This is an interesting appointment for an ex-communist, especially who ran one of the NUM offices in South Wales during the miner strike. Younger viewers will remember the 1994-85 was also a time of great economic upheaval where the government had a somewhat confused attitude to protecting the rights of its citizens that disagreed with it. Although Kim Howells was a moderate there has always been a whiff of suspicion about what exactly he was up to during the conflict.

Although the strike was particularly strong in south Wales the union rank and file remained sensible throughout. Despite this the union was engaged in activities that were clearly outside the law. Kim Howells has even admitted destroying clandestine union records when he thought the policy were going to raid an NUM office after a taxi driver was killed driving miners to work.

Many in the NUM believe to this day that Kim wasn’t exactly on the side of the union and that he was a stooge of parts of the Labour Party that wanted an end to the divisive strike. This was however obviously not the worst crime that a union official could commit. During the strike sections of security forces infiltrated the NUM probably to undermine the efforts of the moderates.

Kim is maybe now in a position to maybe find out what really happened.

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Wayne's World! Wayne's World! Party time! Excellent!

I love Wayne David. So does the great leader.

Help the bald brother out by watching the following adfomercial.







LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Didn`t we have a lovely time the day we went to Bangor

Bangor on Dee is one of the finest places to watch racing in Britain. On a cold November’s day I would take a day’s sport in Bangor over virtually all other potential outdoor recreations.

Bangor is unique in Britain in being the only racecourse without a grandstand but this adds to the spectacle. People stand, often in the drizzle as a faint orange sun crosses the grey sky, watching honest racing. But as cold and as wet as you get you Bangor somehow connects you to the action and the history of a sport. When the horses pound on the turf you can really feal them in your bones. It is wonderful space that harks back to another, possibly better era.

Bangor on Dee is served by two of politicians who remind one of a better era, the excellent Karen Sinclair AM and the slight eccentric but also excellent Martin Jones MP. If the Labour party is to put up a credible challenge to keep in places like Clwyd South then the candidates for the leadership and going to have to ship up to places like Bangor to talk face-to-face to the voters and support Karen and Martin. For this reason The Steamer is recommending that they attend the Bangor

Christmas meeting on the 17th December 2008.

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

A time when Rhodri was great

I first met Rhodri Morgan when he was a Shadow Welsh Office minister.

After a speech to Labour activists in a valleys rugby club Rhodri toured the room, talking, smiling and laughing. It was in the dark days of a conservative administration, and many, if not most in the room believed, that Labour could not win again. I was one of them. I was angry and felt the Labour party had let us down because it failed to win.

I was particularly angry with people like Rhodri. For some reason I felt that he and his fellow MPs had not tried hard enough. So when he came to the group I was with, I let fly. I think I told him his speech was rubbish because it meant nothing.

I must have looked odd. I had just returned from overseas and was incredibly tanned. I was dressed in a Miami vice style suit with waffle shoes. I was also probably slurring as I remember that we had taken advantage of the ludicrously cheep alcohol.

But rather than treat me with the distain that I deserved Rhodri Morgan defended point by point the speech. He then tried to cajole me and the group I was with to take the anger and turn it into something positive. It was a brilliant piece of campaign management. The work of a true leader.

Over time Rhodri has become increasingly embittered. He has been sucked down in to the morass of the Welsh civil service but it is easy to forget that when it mattered he was charming and consensual.

• We are again at a time when our members believe we won’t win but where are the Rhodri’s.
  Of the current batch who is touring the clubs and meetings of Wales?
• Who is seeking to build the labour party’s strength to take on the next election?

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Update - Zarkava

Magnificent. What a horse!








LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - The social exclusion unit

Internet gambling has made it easier for the ethical gambler to pretend that when he wins he is not taking money out of the mouths of the poor. But the sad fact remains that for me to make a return, another soul has to make a loss. And this is not a contest of to be proud of. It is often battle between those who have nothing, against those of us who have knowledge.

But today’s big bet is particularly painful. Only a single mother desperate for cash to pay off the loan sharks would bet against Zarkava in today’s the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

Racehorses are things of beauty but this one is particularly lovely. She is an object of grace, gliding across the turf like a heavenly apparition but she also has the will to win. Already one of the best fillies she could go on to be one of the best horses of her generation.


LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

Not since the Vikings pillaged our land have the people quaked with such fear. But the good L(G)ord has protected us once again. St Murphy returns, not that he ever went away. Halleluiah!

More importantly the return of St Murphy is good news for intelligent tipsters. As the senior politician in Wales he will have some oversight into the whole process of the election and will make sure that all fair and square. ( And that his man will win!!!! And it will be a man, Murphy is not sexist but he is not going to Edwina win with her wacky pro choice views )


For this reason the odds have shifted. Edwina and Carwyn drifting ; Huw and The Fragle stiffening.

LATEST ODDS

Carwyn Jones 5 - 2
Edwina Hart 5 - 1
Huw Lewis 4 - 1
Andrew Davies 10 – 1
Leighton Andrews 8 -1

GOD BLESS WALES

(SP) Starting Prices

There are 26 possible candidates but 5 serious ones. The runners with starting prices (SP) are

1. Carwyn Jones 2 - 1 – The bookies favourite. A cleaver, likable guy.......But fundamentally lazy and this race is more like Aintree's Grand National than Ascot's King Stands Stakes.



2. Edwina Hart 4 - 1 – Not officially running. Her odds reflect that as the only woman she will get the backing of the lady punters. Hard as nails, understands politics.....But from the Colonel Kurtz School of communication.



3. Huw Lewis 13 - 2 – . Will struggle to get to course. If he makes it through could be a contender with the Party.......... But 19 labour AMs hate him.



4. Andrew Davies 10 – 1 Thinks He has won it!!! ...........But sadly his fellow AMs lie ( to Him) and the unions will back a winner. Won't on this showing get on the ballot! Shame, would offer lots.



5. Leighton Andrews 10 -1 Would make the best First Minister by miles - bright, thoughtful, hard working, innovative, progressive ........... But no one is going to nominate him because he talks with a squeaky voice!
   

What is the SP

The SP is the odds prevailing in the on-course fixed-odds betting market at the time a race begins. As is traditional, they have been set by a panel of 4 experts who are going to help me readjust the odds over the coming year.


NB If anyone correctly guesses the panel of experts between now and the election I promise on the soul of Neil Kinnock I will send them a bottle of penderyn.

Just email JamesKeirHardie@gmail.com

GOD BLESS WALES

Why bet on the next First Minister?

If someone is willing to risk money, it means they’re serious.

Put the principle into action and you realise that electoral forecasters should pay as much attention to the betting odds as to the opinion polls. That is because when money is on the line, informed people, perhaps including insiders, have an incentive to turn their knowledge into cash by making big bets.

In the process they make the odds more accurate. And of course, there are several reasons to lie to pollsters but no reasons to make a money-losing bet.


GOD BLESS WALES